WBUR poll shows only slight edge for Baker

While two recent surveys suggested more clear leads in the gubernatorial race, a MassINC/WBUR poll released Tuesday found the race basically unchanged from last week with Republican Charlie Baker holding a 1-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley.

Baker leads Coakley 41-40, and leads 43-42 when people leaning toward a candidate are included, advantages that are both well within the 4.4 percent margin of error. The survey of 494 likely voters was conducted Oct. 22-25, with deep dive into the opinions of voters in Boston.

Voters in the capital city said they support Coakley over Baker 54-28. When leaners are included, Coakley's lead shrinks to 55-31. The Boston-only portion of the poll has a 6.7 percent margin of error.

The MassINC poll arrived after a poll released last Thursday by the Boston Globe/SocialSphere showed Baker leading 45-36. Since then an online poll by the New York Times, CBS and YouGov showed Coakley leading 45-41, and a UMass Lowell/7News poll showed Baker up 45-41.

There was relatively little movement on the three ballot questions polled, with a repeal of the casino law losing 36-59, a bigger margin than last week. A repeal of indexing the gas tax to inflation was shown losing 41-48, a slightly larger margin than last week. The lead grew to 59-31 for the ballot question mandating earned sick time.

The three independent gubernatorial candidates - Jeff McCormick, Evan Falchuk and Scott Lively - remain mired in single-digits, with Falchuk in the lead at 4 percent.

Baker made major gains on some characteristics valued by voters. Baker and Coakley received 36 percent each when voters were asked who would stand up for them. Baker trailed by 12 in the same category in September. Coakley meanwhile beats Baker 50-24 on standing up for women's interests, and Baker showed a corresponding advantage over handling of the economy, taking that issue 49-23. Baker made strides on the perception of his managerial skills, now holding a 15-point lead in that category.

Both candidates received some crossover from the other party. Coakley showed 6 percent of Republicans supporting her and 28 percent of independents, while Baker received support from 14 percent of the Democrats and 49 percent of independents. Each had about a 10-point spread among their own gender - Baker led men 48-38, while Coakley led women 43-34.

Coakley showed an advantage among voters ages 18-29 and 60 or older, while Baker led among voters in the middle years. The Republican also had an advantage with wealthier voters.

U.S. Sen. Ed Markey leads Republican Brian Herr by a 53-31 margin.

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