Election Feed

New In The Phoenix -- Curse Of The Big Dig

Talking Politics - Wed, 03/17/2010 - 2:42pm

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I consider how the Big Dig, aka Original Sin of Massachusetts Politics, is once again at issue in this year's state elections.

Not only do we have Democrats pounding Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker for his alleged complicity in the project's financial shenanigans, but we have two former member of the Turnpike Authority running for statewide office.

By the way, I can only think of one person whose path intersected with the Big Dig and who went on to win an election for higher office: Paul Cellucci, who was lieutenant governor and later (as acting governor) won the 1998 governor's race. Can anyone think of another example? Governors (Dukakis, Weld, Romney) have tried and failed, as have LGs, Treasurers, AGs, and others. I suppose you could count John Kerry, but he stepped up from LG before the funding cleared congress.

Here's the article:

The Curse of the Big Dig: The mere mention of the Central Artery Project can derail one's hopes for higher office. Charlie Baker is finding that out now.

Also in the issue, a two-part Phoenix editorial -- the Boston cab/credit-card controversy, and Patrick working on health care costs.

Categories: Election Feed

Complications Regarding Rebuilding a New Haiti

State Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry - Tue, 03/16/2010 - 2:40pm

Good article about how complicated the rebuilding process will be as the population shits in Haiti. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/world/americas/17rural.html?hp

Categories: All, Election Feed

Two Parties, Two Different Realities

Talking Politics - Fri, 03/12/2010 - 5:14pm

 From the latest National Journal poll of Democratic and Republican Congressional Insiders, both sides believe passage of the health care reform bill helps their side in the November elections:

Q: If Congress enacts something close to President Obama's latest health care reform plan, how would that affect your party in the midterm elections?

DEMOCRATS (44 votes)

Help a lot 55 percent Help a little 32 percent Hurt a little 5 percent Hurt a lot 9 percent Not much impact 0 percentREPUBLICANS (34 votes)Help a lot 76 percent Help a little 24 percent Hurt a little 0 percent Hurt a lot 0 percent Not much impact 0 percentSomewhat less surprisingly, the same is true of left-leaning and right-leaning bloggers.

Categories: Election Feed

Keep Your Eye On Morales

Talking Politics - Fri, 03/12/2010 - 1:27pm

Earlier today I taped a couple of weekend "Eye On Politics" segments with Jon Keller that will air on WBZ radio over the weekend. In the Saturday piece, Jon asked me about Governor Deval Patrick taking his first big public swing at challenger Charlie Baker this week -- saying Baker has been "missing in action" on the issue of health care costs.

In my answer, I speculated that Patrick may be planning a serious push on that health care costs issue this year, which would be wise both from a policy standpoint and a political standpoint -- the latter, in large part, because every discussion of the issue serves to remind voters that Baker is a health-insurance executive.

As circumstantial evidence that this push may be coming, I noted that Patrick recently moved one of his top people, David Morales, from the role of senior advisor in his office to Commissioner of the Division of Health Care Finance and Policy, which, as the title suggests, could be where such an initiative would come from.

Morales is too valuable a guy to move out of the Guv's office to just shuffle papers and take meetings and slowly move the health-care-policy ball down the field. You move a guy like him there to make something significant happen.

Today, Commish Morales posts about a series of public hearings next week with major stakeholders. "Experts and panelists will discuss the feasibility of various strategies for mitigating health care cost growth – from both a policy and industry perspective," he writes. They will also discuss the reasons and realities behind the problem. I'm just guessing here, but I suspect that some of that testimony might cast insurance providers, like Baker's Harvard Pilgrim, in a less than flattering light.

Somehow, I don't think it's a coincidence that the week before these public hearings, Patrick made headlines about Charlie Baker's role in this area. Something tells me these hearings will be worth keeping an eye on.

Categories: Election Feed

GOP Women Update -- Guv & Statewide

Talking Politics - Thu, 03/11/2010 - 4:04pm

There are only 6 women currently serving as state governors -- 3 Dems, 3 Repubs -- after Obama grabbed a couple for his cabinet and Sarah Palin resigned for... whatever the hell her reasons were. But there are lots and lots of opportunities this year: 37 states will hold gubernatorial elections, with the majority of those seats open due to term limits, retirements, or seeking other office.

Two of the three GOP incumbents are among those leaving: Linda Lingle of Hawaii from term limits, and Jodi Rell of Connecticut retiring. The third, Jan Brewer of Arizona, who inherited the seat when Janet Napolitano took the Homeland Security gig, is looking like a definite underdog to win a full term.

I am aware of Republican women running in only 11 states (including Arizona), of which 7, including Brewer, can be considered serious candidates.

Of those, one looks like a likely winner: Mary Fallin in Oklahoma.

There is one other likely primary winner: Meg Whitman in California. If she does win the primary, she will be the underdog against presumed Democratic nominee Jerry Brown.

Rita Meyer has a legitimate shot in Wyoming, with the GOP primary winner certain to win the general. Kay Ivey in Alabama, Karen Handel in Georgia, and Nikki Haley in South Carolina are all trailing in their primaries and seem like longshots to me.

So, basically after Fallin things don't look so good.

The GOP has also seen a decline in women holding other statewide elected offices, and that trend looks likely to continue.

According to the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers, there are currently zero female Republican state attorneys general. None. And as best as I can determine, the only women Republican AG candidates at this point are both running in a tough race for the open Florida position.

There are two elected Secretaries of State who are GOP women; there were three, but Karen Handel resigned to run for governor. Terri Lynn Land is term-limited in Michigan, so that leaves one, Beth Champan in Alabama who is running for re-election. There are, however, several legit candidates running, in Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, and South Dakota (plus a couple of real long-shots elsewhere). No sure things, but some chances to at least hold steady at three.

There are two state Treasurers, one of whom, Kay Ivey, is term limited out (and is running for governor); there are also two state comptrollers, both running for re-election. There is one no-chancer running for Treasurer in California, and one likely winner for comptroller in Illinois. Update: Oops -- oh yeah, there's also Karyn Polito running for Treasurer here in Massachusetts. My bad!

There are three state Auditors, two of whom are leaving to run for other offices and one (in Alabama) running for re-election. There are two running: Pat Anderson, with a legit chance in Minnesota, and Mary Connaughton, with an underdog's chance here in Massachusetts.

There are also currently three Republican women serving as Lieutenant Governors, one of who is on her way out. I see two serious possibilities: Adrienne King in Hawaii and Mary Taylor, who is John Kasich's running-mate in Ohio.

So it looks like each of the major statewide offices -- as with governor -- will likely end up with at most three women Republicans in office.

And finally, a couple of quick notes about state legislators. The number of Republican women state legislators has plummeted from 650 ten years ago to 608 five years ago to 511 today, according to CAWP data -- the lowest number since 1988, representing just 16% of all Republican state legislators.

In addition, there are no Republican women serving as state senate president or house Speaker anywhere in the country (compared to 11 Democratic women), and a grand total of just 7 serving as house or senate pro tempore, majority leader, or minority leader (compared to 33 Democrats). 

Categories: Election Feed

GOP Women Update -- Senate

Talking Politics - Thu, 03/11/2010 - 2:54pm

Here's an interesting bit of trivia, culled from data kept by the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers: no woman has won a GOP primary for an open US Senate seat since 2002 (Elizabeth Dole).

This streak will be tested this year, thanks to a whopping 11 open Senate seats -- five with departing Dems, six GOP.

The hopes appear to rest on two women; the other 9 races have just a couple of completely non-viable female in them on the Republican side.

Kelly Ayotte is one of those two, running for Judd Gregg's seat up in New Hampshire. She leads in the polls over Ovide Lamontagne and Bill Binnie. Conservatives don't like Ayotte and have been trying to rally around Lamontagne, but so far that doesn't seem to be catching fire. Nate Silver at 538.com, in his new Senate rankings, puts her likelihood of winning the primary at 65%, to 35% for Lamontagne -- but that must be based on polls prior to Binnie getting in the race. Close New Hampshire observers have been telling me that multi-gazillionaire Binnie is the real threat -- one GOP insider told me recently that he expects Binnie to win the primary.

The second is Linda McMahon, WWF exec running for Chris Dodd's seat in Connecticut. Silver gives her a 30% chance of winning that primary over Rob Simmons.

Fat lot of good it would do her, though: ever since Dodd opted out and Richard Blumenthal opted in on the D side, this has been chalked up as a sure blue victory.

Ayotte at least would be in a fair fight with Democrat Paul Hodes -- she is polling ahead of him now.

So Ayotte could make it to the Senate. There are two other good possibilities. One is Jane Norton in Colorado, who is the frontrunner in the GOP primary. If she wins that, she's in a toss-up race against appointed Senator Michael Bennet (assuming he makes it through the Dem primary).

The other is Sue Lowden, considered a slight frontrunner in a tough GOP primary field in Nevada. The winner goes against Senate President Harry Reid, who certainly appears to be doomed to defeat -- although not everyone counts him out yet.

There is only one other Republican woman with any realistic chance of winning a Senate seat this year: Carly Fiorina in California. She's getting pummeled in the GOP primary right now, and even if she recovers she would most likely be beaten by incumbent Barbara Boxer in the general.

So, that's three real possibilities -- I personally would put Norton at maybe 50% chance at best, with Ayotte and Lowden each a little less.

That's not bad, considering that right now the GOP has only four women Senators (out of 41 total). Three will remain: the two in Maine, who are not up for re-election, and Murkowski in Alaska, who is essentially running unchallenged. The fourth is Kay Bailey Hutchison, who promised to resign this year regardless of her success running for governor of Texas, but now that she's been humiliated in the primary many suspect she'll stick around the Senate. (Interestingly, the race to replace her would likely have a couple of good female Republican candidates.)

It certainly seems possible that the GOP will get back up to its previous high of 5 female Senators, which would at least get them over the pathetic 10% mark. And if things roll right, it's possible they could do even better. On the other hand, it's not that unlikely that Ayotte, Lowden, and Norton all lose, Hutchison leaves, and they're down to just the three ladies from frozen, isolated, sparsely-populated tundras.

Categories: Election Feed

Women GOP Candidates, Update

Talking Politics - Thu, 03/11/2010 - 11:11am

Shira Toeplitz of Roll Call has a good piece up about House Republicans' failure to recruit female candidates, which gives me the excuse I've been looking for to blog some more about one of my favorite pet topics, the extinction of the elected female Republican.

As Toeplitz points out, there are quite a number of women running as Republicans, but mostly as also-rans or in hopeless races against safe incumbent Democrats. In serious opportunities for a Republican to get elected -- particularly in the districts where Republican incumbents are leaving open seats.

By my count there are 12 districts where a Republican is leaving an open seat that is considered a pretty sure win for the GOP. Of those 12, only 4 have a woman running in the GOP primary at this point, all but one of whom look like single-digit also-rans -- and that one, Robin Smith of Tennessee, is an underdog (and kinda crazy).

There are another 9 districts with open seats (6 with Dems leaving, 3 GOP) that are considered "lean" or "likely" Republican by the Cook Political Report. There are women running in GOP primaries in 5 of those 9 -- all of whom range from long-shots to also-rans. 

Another 8 districts with open seats (including MA-10, where Bill Delahunt is retiring) are considered toss-ups by Cook. Only four have had women enter the GOP primary; one, in Illinois, has already lost. The one major candidate -- probably the most likely Republican woman to win a House seat this year -- is Jaime Herrera, who Toeplitz quotes in her piece. The other two appear unlikely, including Jennifer Horn in New Hampshire.

The candidate I had previously thought had the best chance is Martha Roby of Alabama; she is still in pretty strong position to win her primary, but recent polling suggests that the Democratic incumbent, Bobby Bright, is not as vulnerable as suspected -- Cook has moved this race to "Lean Democrat."

But to sum up: of the 29 districts most likely to produce a new Republican member of Congress, only 1 appears likely to have a woman GOP nominee. (BTW, I'm including in this overview seats to be determined by special election, such as for John Murtha in Pennsylvania.)

If they are going to make any additional gains, it will have to be in districts where the woman not only must win the GOP primary, but win over a favored incumbent Democrat.

Bear in mind that the party starts with just 16 incumbent women running for re-election (17 minus Mary Fallon, who is running for governor) out of their 177 House members. A Herrera win -- and remember, she's in a toss-up district, so that's no sure thing at all -- only gets them back to 17, presumably out of a higher total. Depending on how the election goes, Republicans figure to hold at least 190 seats, and perhaps many more.

I have a lot to update on GOP women's chances in US Senate and governor races, where the prospects have also not been improving much. I'll try to blog on that soon.

Categories: Election Feed

New In The Phoenix -- Deval's Positive Pitch

Talking Politics - Wed, 03/10/2010 - 4:52pm

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I take the measure of Governor Deval Patrick as he begins in earnest his re-election campaign.

The Phoenix was granted an hour-long interview with the governor last week, on policy issues from his first term and looking ahead to a possible second. The interview was conducted by me and executive editor Peter Kadzis in the governor's office. The full transcript, and podcast, are online; the Phoenix also has an editorial about Patrick. (Those links are below.)

In my article, I write that Patrick is pitching a very positive picture of his accomplishments. That makes sense, because the November election is essentially a referendum on his record -- he needs to make the case that the record is excellent, not give excuses or lay blame.

The trouble is, most people in the state are not exactly of the opinion that the government is being run well, or that great laws are being made. So, Patrick's positive message might sound painfully out-of-touch.

Can he use the power of positive thinking to change their attitudes?

My article is here:

Patrick's Power of Positive Thinking: The governor wants to make a feel-good case for re-election. The question is, these days, is anybody feeling good?

The editorial is here:

Patrick's Paradox: No shakes as a political operator, Deval has scored with many policies.

The interview transcript is here.

The mp3 of the interview is here.

 

Categories: Election Feed

8th Grader Writes a Beautiful Sonnet about Haiti

State Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry - Wed, 03/10/2010 - 11:20am

Last month I was honored to participate in a Haiti relief benefit concert hosted by Harvard University.The Harvard for Haiti concert featured performances by artists of all kinds, including musicians, dancers and poets. Though I am certainly not a poet, I read a sonnet that an 8th grader from Dartmouth named Molly Nichols, sent into my office.

Categories: All, Election Feed

Mayors Go For Ballot Cudgel

Talking Politics - Wed, 03/10/2010 - 8:20am

Sean Murphy reports something in the Globe today that could be a big important thing for municipal government in Massachusetts: a plan by a group of mayors to file a ballot initiative to expand local government's power to reduce employee benefits without collective bargaining.

Here's the immediate issue at stake, as the Phoenix described it in an editorial two weeks ago:

[Deval Patrick's] Municipal Relief Act, for instance, would allow cities and towns to reduce health-care-premium costs by negotiating the design of their insurance plans — something currently enforced through collective bargaining. That would save Boston $1 million per month, according to the Massachusetts Municipal Association, which estimates total savings across the state of $75 to $100 million per year.

But municipal-employee unions don't like the idea, so the legislature removed that provision before advancing the bill on Tuesday. The bill is a joke without it — which makes it a perfect piece of legislation for our laughable state government.

Just in case we someday find that insurance design-negotiation and other legislation has passed, tipping the balance of power from public employees to municipalities, mark the date and place (March 5, Boston City Hall) of the meeting where this ballot-initiative idea was hashed out. Meanwhile, let me tell you two stories.

The first is about providing health care coverage for all Massachusetts citizens. Funny thing: enormous percentages of the state's residents wanted it, but their elected representatives never seemed to find a way to get it done. In fact, some of the legislators' wisest and most trusted sources of campaign contributions advisors from the business, insurance, and health-care industries insisted that it couldn't be done.

Then, a group of folks, including the Greater Boston Interfaith Oraganization, formed MassACT! and drew up plans to put universal health care on a ballot initiative. In fact, if my memory serves, GBIO went out and got the 80,000 or so signatures they needed in one weekend, and polls showed the measure heading to a 2-to-1 margin of victory.

And lo! Suddenly all those business, insurance, and health-care leaders got motivated to reform health-care coverage in a way that they could live with, before the people mandated it in a way they would really, really hate. MassACT! held the ballot-initiative cudgel over them right up to the very end, and there is little question that without that threat, the legislation never would have happened.

The second tale involves the education-reform legislation passed earlier this year. Again, lawmakers seemed unable for years to find a path to expanding charter schools (and other reforms), what with their friends in the teachers unions warning them of the resulting horrors to public education, and, more importantly, their political careers.

Then in December '09, signatures were turned in to qualify a ballot initiative for 2010, that would essentially lift all caps on the number of charter schools, and on the amount of state money diverted from public schools to those charters. Hallelujah! The MTA found a charter-expansion plan they could live with -- at least, in comparison with all-charters, all-the-time -- and we have a law. Yes, the Race-To-The-Top deadline was also a big motivator, but there's no question that the success and ultimate strength of the bill was also largely due to the threat of the ballot initiative.

Now, I'm not taking any position here about which side is right and wrong on any of these issues, including the current one about public employee health-care benefits. Nor am I particularly a fan of legislating via ballot initiative.   But I know an effective political tool when I've seen it in action a few times, and this is a good one. My guess is, the over-under on an initiative pitting millions of taxpayer dollars against the bargaining rights of government unions starts at, oh, about 70%-30% in favor maybe? (And yes, those public employees vote, but Menino's no dummy -- he's aiming for the 2012 ballot, when the whole state will be at the polls for the Presidential election.)   So, I'm thinking that the public-employee unions, and the legislators they own lobby, will find themselves with new, intense interest in finding ways to reduce health-care costs for municipalities on their own terms, rather than have this all-or-nothing measure put to the voters.   In fact, if I was advising the mayors, I'd tell them to Go Big with the initiative. Don't make it too wide-ranging -- don't try to throw every grievance you have with your unions in there -- but don't be shy about drawing a strong line, and setting a high bar. Remember, your end goal isn't to have this as an actual law, it's to use the threat of this being a law to scare the other guys into a compromise. And there's nothing wrong with a threat; that's just good politics.

Categories: Election Feed

Taxpayers Union Defends Its Grades

Talking Politics - Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:27pm

 Pete Sepp of the National Taxpayers Union (NTU) was good enough to respond to my post from last week, in which I puzzled over the fact that NTU gave Democrats harsh marks for their American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) votes, which included very large tax cuts. I wrote:

I realize that NTU would say that the heavy spending included in ARRA could, in theory, lead to tax increases in the future. But isn't $275 billion in the hand worth something?

Sepp reponded in the comments, and I'd like to bump the bulk of it up here:

Yes David, those tax cuts "in the hand" were worth something, but to us less than met the eye. The actual figure, for example, is lower than the $275 billion advertised by ARRA supporters. From the conference report on ARRA, the 3-year revenue total of the tax provisions was $252.879 billion, not $275 billion. About 25 percent of that $253 billion ($63.66 billion) consisted of "refundable" credits. This is counted as straight spending, since it is more than offsetting individual tax liabilities.

In our opinion, the few remaining tax provisions of value had more to do with small business expensing and depreciation than simply issuing rebate checks. So in the end the vote was a net negative for fiscal policy.

This is not an reasonable argument, as far as it goes. ARRA did provide for credits that, in many cases, were effectively redistributive rather than tax-reducing. Whether that was $63 billion worth I'd ask someone better versed than myself to check. And there were other pieces touted as "tax cuts" that were not really reducing tax obligation per se -- although I'm not sure why Sepp is so dismissive of the tax-reducing measures for businesses.

But even granting all that, it still seems to me that my wife and I paid $800 less in federal taxes thanks to ARRA -- as did pretty much every middle-class couple. Those with kids got an even bigger break. A whole slew of families who would have paid the Alternative Minimum Tax paid less in taxes thanks to ARRA. People who received unemployment paid less in taxes. Those were all tax cuts, and big ones, to the tune of billions and billions and billions of dollars -- even if we're not counting the ones Sepp doesn't want to count.

That's a lot in the hand. And again, NTU did not merely conclude that the vote was a "net negative" for fiscal policy -- it made the votes for ARRA count very heavily against the lawmakers who took those votes. I don't see how that's justified from the NTU's perspective, with all due respect to Mr. Sepp. I would like to see some others of you out there -- perhaps with a firmer grasp of ARRA nuances than myself -- weigh in!

Categories: Election Feed

Deval And Labor, Whodo Thunkit? (Hint: Me)

Talking Politics - Mon, 03/08/2010 - 7:19am

Nothing against Brian Mooney's fine article in today's Boston Globe. Just sayin', it leads with:

Of all the daunting challenges facing Deval Patrick this reelection year, there is one that would have been especially difficult to imagine more than three years ago when he became the first Democrat in 16 years to assume the governor’s office: unrest in the ranks of organized labor, particularly among public employee unions.

And just sayin', in December 2006 I wrote an article titled "Deval's Dance With Labor" that raised the question of whether labor organizations -- particularly public-employee unions -- were about to find themselves with a Democratic governor at odds with them, and whom they had little influence over.

Anyway, enough about me; go ahead and read Mooney's article. Just make sure you think of me!

Categories: Election Feed

Cahill Brings In McCain's Team

Talking Politics - Fri, 03/05/2010 - 8:34am

Big development in the Massachusetts guv race today, according to the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder: Tim Cahill is hiring big names from the John McCain team, John Weaver, Mark Salter, and Michael Dennehy.

I'll have more to say later, since right now I don't know exactly what role they'll be playing in the campaign. But it's certainly got my interest.

Categories: Election Feed

Applications for Summer Youth Jobs and Adult Managers in Boston

State Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry - Thu, 03/04/2010 - 1:23pm

The Youth Conservation Corps is one of Boston's longest running teen summer work and environmental education programs. The Corps introduces youth to the natural environment in their own neighborhoods through working cooperatively to complete conservation and stewardship projects.

Categories: All, Election Feed

The Lame-Duck Guvs Are Coming!

Talking Politics - Thu, 03/04/2010 - 12:49pm

Democrat Dave Freudenthal announced today that he will not run for a third term as governor of Wyoming; he is term-limited this year, but had been talking about passing a law that would let him run again. Guess he changed his mind. 

This comes days after embattled New York Governor David Paterson announced that he will not run for re-election, should he somehow survive that long.

That makes a total of 23 state governors not running for re-election this year, either because of term limits or personal reasons.

Plus, several of the 14 incumbents who are running face primary challenges in the coming months.

What I'm getting at is that this July, when the National Governors Association holds its big annual meeting right here in Boston, roughly half of the 50 state guvs will be in their final months in office, with no re-election on the horizon. (I'm not counting the territorial governors, b/c I'm too lazy to research them right now.) A few more, who aren't up for election this year, face term limits in 2011 or '12.

That could make for a certain amount of candor at that gathering about the current political and fiscal climate around the country.

Of course, some of those lame ducks aren't exactly walking away from the political arena. Charlie Crist (Fla.) is running for Senate, and Tim Pawlenty is planning a Presidential campaign, to give two examples.

Categories: Election Feed

New In The Phoenix -- Culture, Caucus, And Casinos

Talking Politics - Wed, 03/03/2010 - 3:01pm

In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I write about the newly-formed Cultural Caucus in the Massachusetts state legislature, and its unexpected first big issue: gaming.

The group of about a dozen legislators (so far) is co-chaired by senator Sonia Chang-Diaz and representative Smitty Pignatelli. They plan to advocate for arts-related funding, projects, and related interests inside the statehouse.

But many in the arts community see a huge threat in the possibility of slot parlors and resort casinos coming into the state -- and gaming legislation is expected to hit the House side, at least, within a couple of weeks.

Jumping into that dicey issue could put the new Caucus and its members at odds with powerful pols -- and key allies for the arts community -- like Therese Murray, Robert DeLeo, and Tom Menino, just to name a few.

Caucus members sound like they're ready to plunge in anyway. Read about it here: 

The Cultural Caucus's Big Gamble: Formed to be a savior of the arts in the Bay State, a political coalition is playing high-stakes poker by putting casinos in its sights.

Also, check out the new Phoenix editorial, which takes on the ACORN controversy, and the merger of two local AIDS organizations.

Categories: Election Feed

The Consul General of Haiti is hosting a memorial service.

State Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry - Wed, 03/03/2010 - 2:16pm

The service will begin at 2 PM at the Cathedral of the Holy Cross (1472 Washington Street in the South End) on Sunday March 7. Please contact the Consul at 617-266-3660 for more information.

Categories: All, Election Feed

Taxpayers Union Gives 'F' For Tax Cuts?

Talking Politics - Tue, 03/02/2010 - 5:24pm

 'Tis the season for congressional vote ratings based on 2009. The latest is from the National Taxpayers Union, which as you might guess hates taxes.

Every member of the Massachusetts delegation scored a solid 'F', which requires a score of 16% or lower; John Tierney came closest to passing with 5%.

Turns out, the median score for Democrats was 4% in the House, and 6% in the Senate. For Republicans, it was 85% in the House, 87% in the Senate. So, you know, a couple more of those summits should bridge that minor partisan gap.

Funny, though, I could have sworn that it was almost all Democrats who voted in that $275 billion tax-cut package, as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, and Republicans who voted against it. Surely, that must have counted for something, right?

Of course it did -- in the other direction. The ARRA votes were heavily weighted against those voting for passage. In fact, they were among the heaviest weighted votes of the entire year.

I realize that NTU would say that the heavy spending included in ARRA could, in theory, lead to tax increases in the future. But isn't $275 billion in the hand worth something?

Categories: Election Feed

Brian Wallace Goes

Talking Politics - Tue, 03/02/2010 - 12:57pm

It's been rumored off and on, here and there, but now it's for real: South Boston state rep Brian Wallace will not run for re-election.

Walsh is the fourth Boston rep not running for re-election, along with Marie St. Fleur, Willie Mae Allen, and Michael Rush -- who is running for the open seat of state senator Marian Walsh, who is not running for re-election.

You can add to that turnover count the state senate seat of Anthony Galluccio, who has resigned and is being replaced by special election.

Wallace has held the seat since 2003 -- he's not a fixture like a Rushing, Honan, Scaccia, or Fox. Wallace made a lot of progressives happy when he flipped to vote for same sex marriage; he made Menino unhappy when he at least tacitly supported Michael Flaherty. Wallace watched his district vote for Scott Brown, and was going to face competition for re-election.

Anyway, let the Southie games begin....

Categories: Election Feed

GOP 2012 Rankings, Updated 3/1/10

Talking Politics - Mon, 03/01/2010 - 6:40pm

 I’ve been doing these rankings every two months since right after the last Presidential election (here's the last one), and every two months I get a bunch of messages about how Ron Paul is obviously going to win the GOP nomination, and how I’m obviously an idiot or part of the vast anti-Paul conspiracy.

I expect those messages to increase in number and self-assurance now, thanks to Paul’s first-place finish in the Presidential Straw Poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

But I’m still not putting him on the list. Paul is not going to be the nominee. But, you know, feel free to send those messages.

CPAC was one of the big things that happened since my last rankings. What was most interesting to me about CPAC was the optimism. You wouldn’t know that the GOP is almost completely out of power at the national level, and that the party’s biggest state-level elected officials (Schwarzenegger, Crist) have repudiated movement conservatives like those at CPAC.

Instead, they seem really jazzed up that conservative politics is back in ascendance, and that we’re heading toward a big November for Republicans, and conservative candidates especially.

If that turns out to be true, I imagine there will be quickly be intense interest in the 2012 nomination process -- perhaps giving a boost to movement favorites like Mike Pence, who would need to raise money for a run via Internet "money bomb" drives.

But what if 2010 doesn't turn out so well -- and especially if conservatives do poorly? That might deflate some of the exuberance, while also reinforcing GOP insiders' desire to promote an 'electable' candidate. Or, at least a 'not disastrous' candidate.

Anyway, on to the new rankings. Same top two, but a lot of movement below -- and four new or returning names! Previous ranking is in parentheses.

1) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. East Coast urban sophisticates saw Pawlenty’s CPAC speech as uninspiring. I saw it as perfect for Iowa. Hey, you know who else was no good at delivering a slick, rousing, barn-burner of a stump speech? Every Republican Presidential nominee of the last quarter-century, that’s who. (1)

2) Mike Pence, US Representative from Indiana. He’s been making it pretty darn clear that he intends to run for President. He wouldn’t consider going for Senate even after Evan Bayh called it quits. Question is, does it help or hurt him if the GOP really does take over the House majority? (2)

3) Rick Perry, Governor of Texas. The gubernatorial primary tomorrow, which was supposed to be a blockbuster clash of titans, is instead just a question of whether Perry will get 50%, or go on to pummel Kay Bailey Hutchison in a run-off. The ease of his apparent victory allows him to pivot back toward center -- well, towards somewhere in shouting distance of center -- for the general election. (4)

4) Jim DeMint, US Senator from South Carolina. DeMint was not on the CPAC Straw Poll ballot, which means he didn’t lobby to have his name on it, which may mean he’s not thinking of running. Or, maybe he just doesn’t want to be talked about as a Presidential candidate -- but nothing about him suggests he’s capable of such clever thinking. On the other hand, Marc Ambinder just declared DeMint his 2012 dark horse, and Ambinder doesn’t just make these things up out of the blue. (3)

5) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi. Since taking over for Mark Sanford as chair of the Republican Governors Association, Barbour has been raising money at a faster clip than even Mitt Romney did as RGA chair. He’s also won a couple of elections for the party, which is better than Romney did there. But more importantly, Barbour offered himself up for my patented Al Gore Indicator of Presidential interest, telling the press that “If you see me losing 40 pounds, that means I’m either running or have cancer.” (7)

6) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana. He’s moved quickly from the ‘what, me, aw shucks, never’ phase to the ‘leaving the option open’ phase. Republicans looking for a non-deranged candidate are starting to talk openly about him, as Russ Douthat does today in his Times column. (9)

7) John Thune, US Senator from South Dakota. His name was on the CPAC ballot, which is more important than whether he got any votes. Watch for him to get more active nationally if no Democrat files to run against him this year by the March 30 deadline. (5)

8) Mitt Romney, former Governor from Massachusetts. He’s off and running, touring the country for his new book. (See my article and review.) But as I wrote, I’m skeptical that he can put a winning strategy together. (6)

9) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives. Newt is insisting in interviews that people take seriously the idea of him running for President. At this rate, I think he may back himself into actually running. At CPAC, he was the only speaker to enter not from backstage, but from the back of the hall, so that he could wade through the adoring crowd, like Rocky walking to the ring. Then he gave a hysterical -- in both senses of the word -- speech about how far America has descended into tyranny. (8)

10) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida. Slowly moving up, moving up... (11)

11) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana. I still don’t see how he can do it if he’s also running for re-election in 2011, but now I’m thinking he might not really run for re-election. (14)

12) Bob Corker, US Senator from Tennessee. Corker came away from the big health care summit as “the rational Republican.” Comparatively, of course. (16)

13) John Kasich, former US Congressman from Ohio. GOP insiders tell me there is great interest in a 2010 candidate for governor or Senator catching fire and running for the big seat in ’12 -- and they say that Kasich is the guy everyone’s watching. Right now, they’re watching Kasich trailing in the polls to Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland. (--)

14) Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska. Her palm-written notes at the Tea Party Convention earned some lamestream-media mocking, but the Obama-bashing speech itself convinced some serious people that she’s running in 2012. I’m still skeptical, but I’ll move her up a little. But, could someone explain to her that’s not what people mean by ‘talk to the hand’? (18)

15) Dan Quayle, former Vice President. I ran this one up the flagpole last time, and nobody laughed. Since then, his son Ben declared himself a candidate for Congress in Arizona. (15)

16) Luis Fortuno, Governor of Puerto Rico. After he debuted on this list two months ago, he suddenly got embroiled in a huge messy debate involving rum. Apparently Fortuno is pissed that Captain Morgan’s is going to be made in the Virgin Islands instead of Puerto Rico, and now Bacardi is pissed, and frankly I don’t know what the hell is going on but it’s way more interesting than what the other people on this list are doing. (12)

17) Jon Kyl, US Senator from Arizona. I’m not seeing it. (13)

18) Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas. The Gore Waistline Indicator is still skeptical of Huckabee, but I keep hearing that his operatives are acting like he’s going to run. He took a potshot at CPAC (which I give him credit for), but I’m not sure how he plans to expand his base.  (17)

19) Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives. Rubiomania still in effect. They loved him at CPAC! (22)

20) Eric Cantor, US Representative from Virginia. Cantor seemed unbelievably silly and irrelevant in the big health care summit. Everything he touches seems to fail. Am I crazy, or is he perfectly situated to rise to Speaker for the GOP at some point? (10)

21) Jeff Sessions, US Senator from Alabama. Got mentioned by polisci prof John Tures and talk-radio loon Michael Savage, so why not? (--)

22) Condoleezza Rice, former Secretary of State. She popped into view, endorsing Meg Whitman in California. Re-start the Draft Condi engines! (--)

23) Jon Huntsman, US Ambassador to China. I took him off the list when he took off to the other side of the world, but Ambinder (see above) and others claim he’s still interested in 2012. Not sure how that’s supposed to work, but OK. (--)

24) George Pataki, former governor of New York. Looks better and better in comparison with subsequent NY guvs. (23)

25) Rick Santorum, former US Senator from Pennsylvania. Heading to South Carolina. I’m sure they’re excited to have him. (19)

Dropping off the list: Kay Bailey Hutchison, Paul Ryan, Dirk Kempthorne, Chuck Grassley

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