By Jim O'Sullivan

Citing "once in a lifetime" market conditions, Mayor Thomas M. Menino said Tuesday that Dorchester is likely to be the Boston community hardest hit by soaring property taxes. Menino said the high number of two- and three-family homes in the neighborhood would result in raises of 35 percent on two-family houses and 40 percent on three-family houses, unless a tax classification bill he is championing passes the state Legislature.

In an interview with the Reporter in his City Hall office, Menino called on lawmakers to pass legislation that would shift much of the burden from homeowners to commercial office and business property owners, a move he said would cut the tax hikes by 50 percent. Menino acknowledged opposition on Beacon Hill, where the bill is being studied by a special commission that will issue recommendations in January.

The planned boost in property taxes, which officials predict will pain elderly and lower- and middle-class property owners particularly, is the result of a number of forces converging, a "perfect storm" of economic conditions. The city, mandated by state law to reassess property every three years, found this year that commercial properties had declined in value, while residential properties had inflated. Menino stressed that the added taxes won't line the city's pockets, but instead cover shortcomings caused by high vacancy rates in downtown office space, declining commercial lease figures, and the still slumping economy.

The result, Menino said, is the shifting of a $100 million tax burden from commercial to residential owners, with an average hike of roughly $800 for each single-family home.

"What's happened is an anomaly; it'll never happen again," said Menino.

"Who gets hurt if we don't get the piece of legislation passed? It's the elderly, people on fixed incomes, young couples who just bought their first homes &endash; those are the ones who will get hit the most and the hardest."

Menino also predicted that landlords would pass some of the blow along to tenants.

"What's gonna happen is the owner of an apartment building will raise his rents," said Menino.

The Boston Tenant Coalition echoed Menino's prediction. Coordinator Kathy Brown said landlords are likely to hoist rents "both to maintain and expand profits."

Menino is joined in lobbying for the bill by a rare coalition: big-name real estate firms who support the measure, Senate President Robert E. Travaglini, and Governor Mitt Romney, the last of whom Menino has criticized frequently for cuts in local aid. According to City Hall and State House officials, the Boston delegation is on board with Menino's push &endash; with a notable exception. Speaker of the House Thomas M. Finneran's decision to appoint a special commission pushed back the Legislature's vote on the bill, creating friction between two of Boston's political heavyweights.

"I think he understands it, but he has to be convinced of it," Menino said of Finneran, a Mattapan state representative. "I think the Speaker understands the increase in taxes, but he just has a different view of where we're going with it. I want to protect the homeowner."

Finneran's office did not return a phone call seeking comment. Finneran is recovering from hip replacement surgery.

Homeowners who have opened envelopes from City Hall carrying their new tax estimates since they began arriving last week have blanched at some of the figures.

"I think they're trying to take the senior citizens and put us in the old homes," said Jeannette Daley, a 73-year-old homeowner on Roseclair St. Chatting with neighbors after a McCormack Civic Association meeting, Daley said the two-family she has owned since 1972 just jumped $1,000 in tax value.

But, contrary to forecasts from Menino and tenants' advocates, Daley and one of her companions said they refuse to ask their tenants for more.

One 75-year-old woman, who asked that her name not be used, said the taxes on her Mount Vernon St. three-decker are estimated to jump from $1,600 to $3,500. She said her daughter lives on the second floor, paying $435 per month, and an elderly man living alone on the third floor pays $400 per month.

"I can't go up on his rent because he's a good tenant and he's a good man," the woman said.

"I can't put him out because he's 80-years-old. I just haven't got the heart to tell him to get out."

The woman said her apartment is "falling apart," but that she can't afford to pay for repairs.

"If the taxes are going to be going up, then what the hell am I going to do?"

Daley, who said she was "stunned" by the $1,000 increase in her tax bill, said, "I understand real estate is going up, and they want you to keep your property up, but how can you, when you're paying it all in taxes?"

Joe Rull, a Neighborhood Services coordinator representing South Boston and a handful of precincts in Dorchester, told the women that exemptions are available to senior citizens, widows, veterans, and handicapped people, and said owners who think their property has been appraised unfairly should contact the City Hall assessing department.

Mike Stella, who owns more than one hundred units in Dorchester and Roxbury, said the assessing procedure is "a very good one," and said he expected that few appeals will be successful.

"It's going to be really hard for people to say, 'That's not a correct evaluation,' because I think the city almost always makes an error on the downside, if they're going to make one," said Stella, who said he probably will not demand a heavy increase from his tenants. He warned that some landlords, though, might make "irrational correlations."

"That's what I worry about, is the turmoil that could create, if people jump to that conclusion and say, 'I can't take that burden, I have to push if off to somebody else'."

Dorchester City Councillor Maureen Feeney, who has been traveling the civic circuit explaining the increases and encouraging constituents to contact legislators, said Dorchester's multi-family, long-term property owners do not stand to benefit from the market jumps.

"It's fine if you're one of those people selling their houses," said Feeney. "But if you're here and you're going to stay in your home, you'll be hurt."

State House sources said they expect the Menino-backed measure, or an altered version of it, to pass.

"We have to do something. It's crazy to ask homeowners to shoulder the whole burden," said Dorchester state Rep. Martin Walsh, pointing to higher property values as a double-edged sword. "We're kind of victims of our own success."

State Rep. Marie St. Fleur's office did not return a phone call seeking comment.