By Jim O'Sullivan

In the month since the preliminary election for City Council, City Hall insiders and streetcorner prognosticators alike have shied away from bold forecasts about how the Nov. 4th final will shake out. Instead of fingering winners and losers in the sprint to winnow the field from eight to four, political watchers shrug and offer shrewd kernels of electoral wisdom amounting to admissions that the campaign is, simply, "too close to call."

The Sept. 23 preliminary showed Council President Michael Flaherty on top with 18 percent of the vote, incumbent Steve Murphy second with 16 percent, challenger Patricia White third with 15 percent, and incumbents Maura Hennigan and Felix Arroyo fourth and fifth, with 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Matt O'Malley, a rookie whose vigorous campaign has turned heads, placed fifth with six percent, followed by Dorchester's Althea Garrison at five percent and Roy Owens at four.

Flaherty's and Murphy's reelection hopes seem secure, White has generated newcomer buzz with her third-place showing, and much of the intrigue swirls around Hennigan and Arroyo, two liberal members of the Council's bloc of progressives reliable in their opposition to the more conservative wing.

Dorchester, with its vast swath of the city (the five wards that lie entirely or mostly within the neighborhood cast 21 percent of the preliminary ballots) and diverse population, serves as a bellwether for Boston's ballot-box whims. In fact, results in Dorchester's wards 13 through 17 largely mirror citywide results, save for Arroyo's numbers, which leapfrog those of White and Hennigan, due chiefly to his performance in 14 and 17, where he topped the ticket.

Flaherty and Murphy wrapped up the rest of the neighborhood firmly, due largely to name recognition and deep ties. Both claim family roots in Dorchester, and Murphy, whose statewide run for treasurer last year boosted his name recognition, grew up on Fuller St.

"Michael Flaherty came in first in Dorchester, and Ward 16, because he listens to the people of Dorchester and he knows the issues that are important to them," said Craig Galvin, a Flaherty backer and Dorchester resident. "When we have needed his support on issues that important to us, Michael has been there."

"For me, Dorchester has always been like a second home," said Flaherty, Tuesday, citing proximity to his native South Boston. "It's been a great relationship. Neighboring communities share a lot of the same interests."

Flaherty said he didn't think controversy surrounding his involvement in the District Four race, where he has been vocal in supporting challenger Ego Ezedi and criticizing incumbent Councillor Charles Yancey, would hinder his performance in that section of Dorchester.

Both candidates rang up big numbers in heavy-voting and heavily Irish-Catholic Ward 16, Flaherty's numbers his best citywide, apart from the two South Boston wards. Murphy's only better showing was in East Boston's Ward 1.

Arroyo, who predicted that Flaherty and Murphy again would grab the gold and silver, said the Irish vote still counts in city elections.

"I know that people of Irish surname have been involved in Boston politics for a very long time, and want to support people of their own," Arroyo said outside Tuesday night's West Roxbury Ward 20 Democratic Committee endorsement powwow. "That is not wrong. What is wrong is to isolate ourselves in the city. And I think this is a good opportunity to give growth to the mix in the city."

Neither Flaherty nor Murphy denied the currency of an Irish last name. "I could have horns and a tail and they'd vote for me because I'm Murphy," Murphy said.

"Steve Murphy's always done well in Dorchester," said state Representative Martin Walsh, who has endorsed Murphy, Arroyo, and O'Malley. "He has roots here, and he always does very, very well in the City Council race in Dorchester."

Walsh predicted that Flaherty and Murphy would snag the top two spots again in the final election, and said the other two incumbents and newcomers White and O'Malley faced "a jump ball" for the remaining seats.

To fortify his second-place footing, Murphy could use a spot on the same "dance card" that he said poured 421 votes into White's coffers and 391 into Flaherty's in Ward 21 Precinct 13, a Brighton neighborhood on the Brookline border populated largely by Russian immigrants. In next-door 21-12, White's 128 votes nearly doubled those of the precinct's second-place finisher, Flaherty. In 3-8, Chinatown &endash; where former Kevin White aide Frank Chin wields a hefty electoral club, and which Flaherty's father represented for decades as a state representative Flaherty and White waltzed again, piling up between them 43 percent of the vote.

On Tuesday night, Chinatown's Josiah Quincy School hosted a well-attended candidates night, co-sponsored by a slew of organizations, including Boston's League of Women Voters, the Chinese Progressive Association (CPA), the Boston Tenant Coalition, and Dorchester-based Viet-AID. Neither Flaherty nor White attended, both opting for the West Roxbury event. In the preliminary, Ward 20 turned out 23 percent of its registered voters, comprising 16 percent of the citywide vote.

Lydia Lowe, director of the CPA, said a number of elderly Chinatown voters had signed sworn affidavits stating that poll workers helping them with the ballots illegally urged votes for Flaherty and White. Lowe, who has endorsed Arroyo, said, "It's unclear to us how much [the alleged irregularities] influenced the vote."

Flaherty declined to comment. A White spokeswoman said White would support the secretary of state's recommendations for the final election.

"That lies within the purview of the elections department for the city and the state," said Angelique Pirozzi.

Each of the five top contenders claims a healthy measure of name recognition. The four incumbents have been around the block, Flaherty's name splitting top billing on some City Hall stationery. Murphy has stood for election in every city vote since 1993. Arroyo, liberal darling, can claim pioneer status as the council's first Latino. Hennigan's service dates back to Ray Flynn's predecessor's administration.

Whose name has been popping up on voicemails across the city. And in Ward 21 Precinct 12, where his daughter hauled in 28 percent in the preliminary, the White name gives an extra boost.

The polling location for 21-12? That's 20 Washington St., Brighton. The Patricia White Apartments, housing for the elderly.