By Patrick McGroarty
Special to the Reporter

State Representative Marie St. Fleur will run for reelection this fall, the Reporter learned on Monday, ending speculation that the reported financial problems that led St. Fleur to withdraw her candidacy for Lieutenant Governor might end her political career altogether.

The consensus among Dorchester pundits was that St. Fleur would rebound from the events of last week and fend off any potential challengers in her Fifth Suffolk District.

"Marie has the support of her district," said former state Rep. Charlotte Golar Richie. "The expectation is that she will run for reelection, and that she will be elected."

St. Fleur campaign chair Alix Cantave confirmed on Monday afternoon that she would seek reelection in the Fifth Suffolk.

"She absolutely will be running," said Cantave. "The minute she decided not to run for lieutenant governor, she knew that she was going to run for her seat."

St. Fleur's presence in the race is pivotal in shaping the field of candidates who might run against her.

After St. Fleur announced Tuesday afternoon that she would drop re-election in the Fifth Suffolk to pursue a bid for Lieutenant Governor, several confirmed hopefuls and a laundry list of potential pols dominated speculation around the neighborhood. One was Barry Lawton, a high school teacher who challenged St. Fleur unsuccessfully in 1999. On Monday January 30, Lawton told the Reporter that he had drawn candidacy papers from the office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth. But St. Fleur's reentrance in the race a week later left Lawton backpedaling.

"A lot of my attention here has been in support of Marie and her family." Lawton said on Monday morning. "She is still our state rep., and she needs our support to be effective in office."

Lawton has yet to decide if he will launch a campaign against the three-term incumbent.

"I've moved out of the campaign planning mode that I jumped into last week," said Lawton. "I'm going to wait for the dust to settle down a little bit."

Former state rep. Althea Garrison also threw her well-worn hat into the ring in the wake of St. Fleur's then-assumed departure. But while Garrison indicated last week that St.Fleur's departure motivated her decision to pull papers, she said on Monday that she had always intended to enter the race.

"I don't care who's running," said Garrison. "I was already a candidate for this race, and those issues don't effect my position at all."

Garrison also pointed to a third potential candidate, Roxbury resident and MBTA employee Serviano Cruz. She said she had spoken with Cruz, and that each had decided to keep their campaign in low gear for the time being.

St. Fleur supporters remain confident that the week's events would not greatly benefit either candidate, or erode the support of loyal voters.

"We know Garrison and Lawton are likely to run against her, but these are people who have run before and not had much success," said Ed Cook of the Ward 16 Democratic Committee. "A more powerful candidate could stand against her, but we believe we have the focus and the momentum of record to attract a majority of voters."

Judy Meredith, chair of the Ward 15 Democratic Committee, also believes that voters in the fifth will stick by St. Fleur.

"Look at what is happening to Dianne Wilkerson," said Meredith. "The voters don't care what she's done, or what Tom Reilly's said she's done. I would advise any candidate, my friend Barry Lawton included, to wait and see how this thing plays out."

The local forecast for Attorney General Tom Reilly, on the other hand, was not so sunny.

Meredith believes that both Reilly, and St. Fleur, should have taken more time to consider the extent of the scrutiny that St. Fleur would face.

"Marie told Reilly that she had financial troubles, and he said they could handle it," said Meredith. "It was a complete misjudgment for her first state race. Nobody can overestimate the shock and pain of having your personal business right on the front page."

Cook agreed that Reilly's selection process lacked an adequate level of scrutiny.

"My first impression was that this was an enormous failure for his campaign, not to disparage Marie," said Cook. "He's supposedly the frontrunner, with all this money; you would expect a certain level of organization. That's just the basics."

That Reilly's ill-fated decision came just a week before the Democratic caucuses, said Cook, may prove a major debacle for his campaign.

State Rep. Martin Walsh isn't so sure. A Reilly supporter, Walsh said that despite the conventional wisdom disparaging Reilly's chances, the race is young enough for Reilly to rebound strongly with an amended strategy and a close look at his political advisors.

"It's time to stop worrying about who didn't pay this or that," said Walsh. "I think politicians get bad marks from voters for concentrating on that. I think in the next few weeks you'll see both Reilly and Patrick start focusing on the issues."