By Bill Forry
Managing Editor

Your former mayor, Ray Flynn, is raising an alarm this week that John Kerry may be blowing his chance to appeal to a key niche vote in swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The retired South Boston politician and diplomat- who has become an outspoken defender of the Catholic Church establishment in recent years- is still sounding off about that. But now he's also piping up about a related strain of votes that may also be in play this season: Irish-Americans.

There are some 44 million Americans with Irish blood- a number that dwarfs any other ethnic bloc in the states. Of course, as we know well in Boston, the Irish are hardly a homogeneous bunch and only a sliver of that huge number have any real ties to the Emerald Isle.

But, in a presidential election where a small number of undecideds in one or two states could make the difference, Flynn argues that pockets of Irish voters could- and should- play a pivotal role. They came out big in 1992 for Bill Clinton, who grasped the disaffection the "Irish Irish" have for Republicans, who in general, have been indifferent at best to the "Troubles" in the North of Ireland.

Flynn played a key role for Clinton back then, stumping for him in far-flung Irish pockets in California and Montana, as part of a coordinated effort to appeal to those who care deeply about peace and justice issues in the North.

"We spoke to every (Ancient Order of Hibernian group), every Irish-American order that would listen to us. We did it for three solid months, every single day and it really paid off," says Flynn.

Fresh back from a speaking engagement in front of a largely Irish-American audience in Ohio last month, Flynn is flabbergasted that neither party has "made a play" for the Irish vote the way the Democrats did in '92.

In Ohio, for example, where Bush beat Al Gore by only a few thousand votes in 2000, Irish-American organizations like the AOH- a national group with strong feelings about peace and justice issues in the North of Ireland- should be easy picking for Kerry, at least in theory. There are strong feelings among many Irish-American observers that Bush has done little to advance the progress of peace in Ireland that was made on Clinton's watched. Clinton is revered in Ireland as our greatest president, trumping even JFK in popularity. Bush, in contrast, is demonized in Ireland, particularly over the war in Iraq, but also for his hands-off approach to the peace process.

So why should Kerry have to worry about the Irish Irish, then? For one thing, Kerry himself has a weak record on Irish-related issues in the Senate, having essentially handed the island off to Ted Kennedy and other Massachusetts pols with a greater interest in the issue. Then there's the matter of Kerry's own ancestry flap, in which he allowed a decades-long presumption of his own Irish bloodlines to go unchecked until last year, when he acknowldged he had none.

More troubling for Kerry, a large swath of the traditional Irish-American constituency are also Catholics- and could break right over issues like gay marriage and abortion. It's something that the Republicans and Karl Rove are keenly aware of- and have a strategy to exploit, especially since Kerry has not made an aggressive play on Irish foreign policy to date.

Peter King, the New York Congressman who is the GOP's point-man on Irish issues, told the Reporter last week that his party was taken aback by the DNC's half-hearted position on the Irish question in their convention platform.

"The Democrats gave (us) a bit of an opening by giving such a lukewarm statement on it," King says, promising a "big" Irish showing this week as the GOP gathers for their Big Apple soiree.

"They're in play and the White House is definitely looking to the Irish-American vote," says King. "One thing that's different (in this election) is that Northern Ireland is still important, but they also believe they can appeal to them along the old Reagan Democrat line: issues such as abortion."

One veteran political operative who played a key role in managing several states for Gore says that the Democrats made an error by not going after the Irish vote more aggressively in 2000. The same operative, who asked not to be identified, told the Reporter that Kerry's people are aware of that- and have a plan.

If they do, it's hard to find anyone in the Kerry camp to confirm it. But there are signs that they may be lining up some local Irish-American pols to lend a hand for the final push.

Congressman Steve Lynch, the 9th district congressman, has already logged time in several states to bolster labor constituencies for Kerry. Now, Lynch says he's been asked to head to Pennsylvania this month to appeal to "Casey Democrats," party regulars - many of them with Irish roots - who were wooed away in the 90's by the Keystone state's former Republican governor, Bill Casey.

"Myself, [state representatives] Martin Walsh and Gene O'Flaherty (of Chelsea) - three of the state's most prominent Irish-American politicians- all campaigned in Dubuque, Iowa for Kerry last January. It had the highest Irish population of the 99 counties of Iowa. [The campaign] knew what they were doing then. I'm sure some of that is still going on."

If surrogates like Lynch can also talk about re-charging the Irish peace process under a Kerry banner, all the better, says Flynn, who in a letter on August 22 challenged both campaigns to participate in an Irish Issues Presidential forum this fall. To date, Flynn's had no response and remains skeptical that either side is thoughtful enough about Irish issues to sway undecided voters - such as himself.

"I don't think either one of them have the weight to criticize one another over whose more concerned," Flynn says of the candidates. "Kerry should never assume he has the Irish-American vote, because he doesn't. It's a very important undecided group. And it may not elect somebody, but it could defeat somebody."

A fuller examination of this issue is available in the September edition of the Boston Irish Reporter, a sister publication of the Dorchester Reporter.