Things look safe on the ground for incumbents in Massachusetts, from a polling perspective at least, as they head into the last weekend before the Nov. 6 election. Polling locations will be open on Tuesday from 7 a.m.- 8p.m.

Polls show hefty leads for Charlie Baker and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, solid support for transgender protections on the ballot, and a sudden sharp swing away from opposing a ballot measure to regulate nurse staffing ratios.

According to a WBUR poll conducted by MassINC, ballot question one, which would limit how many patients could be assigned to each registered nurse in Massachusetts hospitals and certain other health care facilities, has seen a jump into the “no” column in recent weeks. While likely voters were split 44 percent on each side in a September sample, the October polling shows 58 percent now say they are leaning toward voting no on the question and only 31 toward yes.

Preferences are much more consistent on the next two questions, one of which will set up a citizens commission to advance an amendment to the United States Constitution to limit the influence of money in elections and establish that corporations do not have the same rights as human beings. Question 3 would keep in place a law which prohibits discrimination on the basis of gender identity in places of public accommodation, protecting transgender accommodations. Both show support in the mid-to-high 60s.

Sen. Warren still held a significant advantage in the polls this week. A majority of Massachusetts likely voters said fighting government corruption was the priority that would most make them likely to choose one senate candidate over another, and they said they were leaning toward Warren over Republican Geoff Diehl by 53 to 31 percent in a WBUR poll released on Oct. 31.

Meanwhile, both gubernatorial candidates are staking out ground in Dorchester and Mattapan. Gov. Charlie Baker is a familiar face at state groundbreakings like the new Blue Hill Avenue station on the Fairmount Line and the Epiphany School expansion. His primary campaign celebration took place at Venezia on the Port Norfolk peninsula.

His campaign points to state funds ultimately approved by the governor, pushed doggedly by members of the state delegation, including the $8 million dedicated to a Mattapan high-speed trolley study, MassWorks grants given to local projects like the South Bay expansion ($1.2 million) and the Olmsted Green West Phase III Infrastructure Project ($3 million), and projects like the forthcoming Cote Village development and almost re-completed Treadmark building that benefited from state grants and tax credits.

“Governor Baker and Lt. Governor Polito are grateful for the opportunity to connect with voters in thriving and diverse neighborhoods like Dorchester and Mattapan to communicate their bipartisan record of success,” said Baker/Polito campaign spokesman Terry MacCormack in a statement.

Jay Gonzalez and other Democrats say a more aggressive touch is needed for repairing and building-out the state’s infrastructure.

“As I talk to residents of Dorchester and Mattapan, I hear their frustration with an education system that is failing too many of our young people,” Gonzalez said in a statement. “I hear people sick and tired of a transportation system they can’t rely on, health care costs they can’t afford, and the cost of housing continuing to go up and up with no end in sight.”

Gonzalez pledges to raise $3 billion annually in new revenue through taxing the wealthy and well-off institutions, which Baker’s camp has called impractical and insufficient for the stated goals associated with it. But that funding, Gonzalez said, will go to childcare, preschool, fully funding public schools, higher education, and transit.

“We will also invest to fix the Red Line and improve bus service so people can depend on them to get to work on time, and we will invest in transformational projects like the North-South Rail Link that will improve service on the Fairmount Line,” he said. “We will also move Massachusetts to a single payer health care system to ensure everyone has access to the health care services they need, and we will increase investment in affordable housing, including homeownership opportunities for first-time homebuyers.”

Those supporting Baker in Dorchester highlight his essential paradox and perk as a Republican in Massachusetts.

“What I find was fascinating about him is he’s the most consistent political person I’ve ever know, and I’ve known a lot of politicians,” said Savin Bar and Kitchen owner Driscoll Docanto, who has supported Baker through fundraisers locally and on Martha’s Vineyard since the governor’s first successful run. “He’s agnostic when it comes to political backdrop or affiliation; you’d never know if he had and R or a D next to his name.”

Docanto, for his part, sees improvements in the state’s infrastructure under Baker’s tenure. He points to the forthcoming new $1 billion in new Red Line train cars across lines and upgrades to keep the system in good repair. “As much as that has been a total disaster for so long, it feels like it’s on the mend,” Docanto said.

The opioid crisis, which likely voters told MassINC was one of their top priorities, along with public school funding and health care, for a potential governor, has also been a Baker commitment and in dire need of address, Docanto said. He also noted Baker’s rapport with Mayor Martin Walsh, who has not endorsed in the governor’s race, saying, “he has a good relationship with the current mayor, and obviously the state and city of Boston need to work closely together.”

Walsh aside, Gonzalez is running with the support of his fellow Democrats as part of a unified campaign up and down the ballot. Sen. Warren, notably, shares space on yard signs with the Gonzalez camp and had contributed $1 million to the collective Democratic campaign.

Baker remains an incredibly popular governor. In a recent Suffolk University poll of likely voters, a full 65 percent said they planned to vote for the incumbent, while 26 percent plan to vote for Gonzalez.

On the Trump side, the president’s high unfavorability in Massachusetts (66 percent, according to the Suffolk poll) is not touching the governor in any significant sense. He remains a less polarizing figure than Warren, with 15 percent unfavorables to her 38 percent.

Democrats are pointing to recent elections that inverted the polling at the ballot box. City Councillor At-Large Ayanna Pressley, now the presumptive congresswoman for the Massachusetts Seventh Congressional District, said after her win, at a unified campaign event in Dorchester, “There is a shift occurring. We can feel the ground shifting beneath our feet and we need to harness that.”

Pressley said at the time that her win should be proof that polling doesn’t always reflect the attitude of voters.

“As was proven in our campaign, you can’t poll or gauge transformation and transformation is happening out there on the ground,” she said.
Liz Miranda, Democratic nominee for the Fifth Suffolk district and a Gonzalez supporter, said, “I believe that the issue is a crisis of opportunity and criminal justice issue.”

Basic access is critical and leads her toward believing Democrats are more effectively advocating for vulnerable populations at this moment, she said.

“Mr. Gonzalez has a real plan for fixing our broken transportation system,” she said. In her young, diverse district, “we rely on public transportation, including thousands under 18 who use it to get to school, go to work. The commuter rail, the Fairmount-Indigo line is not being utilized as much as it should,” she said.

“I support the whole Democratic ticket because I believe we have to do something drastic,” she said.