Congressional Democrats are facing a crisis of identity, with the defeat of the 2024 election sparking debate over how to win back disaffected voters who either stayed home or defected to the Trump camp.
While some in the party’s grassroots look to left-leaning Democrats such as New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani or New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for leadership, others have advocated a more centrist path.
Enter Massachusetts 6th Congressional District Rep. Seth Moulton, who is contemplating a run against a fellow Democrat, US Sen. Ed Markey. Moulton, a self-described centrist who will turn 47 later this month, this year has staked out positions to the right of Markey, opposing trans athletes’ participation in women’s sports and arguing against a proposed national millionaires surtax modeled after the Massachusetts Fair Share Amendment.
Another potential challenger, 37-year-old US Rep. Jake Auchincloss of Newton, ruled out a run against Markey in September after months of consideration. The decision came as the Markey was pumping out a string of public endorsements by high-profile Democrats, from Massachusetts House Speaker Ron Mariano to local state reps like Dorchester’s Dan Hunt.
But, there have also been persistent rumors that 7th Congressional District Rep. Ayanna Pressley— who has not publicly endorsed Markey’s re-election yet— is contemplating a run against him. While Moulton has reportedly been hiring people to work on a Senate campaign, Pressley, 51, told the politics newsletter Massterlist that she’s not presently mounting a challenge.
“I’m focused on what’s going [on] in front of me, and I’ll just say this: Sen. Markey and I have long enjoyed a very productive relationship,” she told Massterlist Editor Gintautas Dumcius. “We’ve worked very closely together on issues of environmental and climate justice, and criminal legal reform.”
The prospect of a three-way matchup, however remote the chances might seem, prompted the conservative Fiscal Alliance Foundation to poll likely general election voters on such a race. The poll queued up with an initial question noting that the senator will turn 80 in 2026, asking whether he should run, then asked voters about potential matchups between Markey and Moulton and Markey and Pressley.
While the survey showed Markey losing to Moulton and beating Pressley, Democratic activists note that the general election voters polled — Democrats, Republicans, and independents — are not generally reflective of Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts, who tend to lean left of center.
Moulton’s stridently centrist positioning would put him at a disadvantage, says Jonathan Cohn, policy director for the group Progressive Massachusetts.
“In the last election, Joseph Kennedy [III] ran against Markey with the message that we need somebody younger and didn’t win,” Cohn noted. “It’s six years later. Knowing that Seth is not as solid on a lot of issues and has angered the party base, it’s unclear how he would win.”
Cohn also noted that Moulton’s ambitions have fallen short in recent years. In 2018, he mounted an unsuccessful challenge against Nancy Pelosi for the House speakership. In 2019, he launched a presidential campaign, but failed to gain enough support to participate in debates during the campaign. He folded after four months that included swings through Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
In Boston, Ward 11 Democratic Committee Chair Annie Rousseau, a co-director of the group J.P. Progressives, said she thinks Markey’s prospects for re-election are strong, so long as Pressley remains out of the race. “That’s probably why she’s not going to run,” she said.
In a matchup against Moulton, Rousseau added, Markey would appeal more to primary voters.
“I think Markey’s politics are certainly aligned with the issues Democrats and independent voters in Massachusetts care about,” she said.
Chelsea City Councillor Roberto Jiminez said Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts will want what Democrats across the country are calling for — elected officials willing to fight the Republicans as they support the Trump administration’s consolidation of power.
“I think the biggest reason why Democrats have underperformed is because they’re not willing to show people they have fight in them,” he said. “That’s why you’re seeing [Vermont US Sen.] Sanders and AOC going to Idaho and filling up stadiums. [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer and [House Minority Leader [Hakeem Jeffries] are not meeting the moment.”
Markey’s embrace of Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal and other progressive causes positioned him favorably with young voters during the 2020 race against Kennedy, Jiminez contends. “Markey was in line with the next generation,” he said. “That’s still the case today.
Cohn says the perception that Democrats are currying favor with special interests such as private equity, the Israeli lobby, and Silicon Valley executives has limited the party’s appeal to young voters.
“Markey has made himself a very reliable fighter for labor, for climate action,” Cohn said. “With Moulton, he’s moving toward the middle and weakening the Democratic Party.”
Among other questions in the Fiscal Alliance poll, the 750 likely voters were asked whether they would support a cut in the state income tax rate from 5 percent to 4 percent. With a 3.6 percent margin of error, 62 percent said they would.
A coalition of state business groups is collecting signatures to place such an income tax cut on the ballot. If it passes, the initiative could cut as much as $5.3 billion from the $60.9 billion state budget.
