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By Sam Drysdale
Gov. Maura Healey is maintaining a lead in polls two weeks ahead of Election Day, while the race is tightening around ballot questions to allow public defenders to unionize, create an all-party primary system, and constrain the state’s revenue cap.
Amidst concerns about the cost of living and taxes being the top two factors driving Massachusetts voters to the polls, they seem poised to reelect an incumbent for another four years, according to a UMass Amherst / WCVB poll released on Monday this week. It was conducted Oct. 5 through Oct. 12 of 800 registered voters, with a 4.2 percent margin of error.
Of those polled, 56 percent would reelect Healey, while 31 percent supported Republican challenger Mike Minogue, 5 percent were backing independent candidate Andrea James, and 7 percent said they still don’t know who they’re planning to vote for.
The top three factors motivating voters when choosing a gubernatorial candidate were: the state’s cost of living (42 percent), taxes (32 percent), and the candidate’s party (25 percent).
Most voters agree that Healey kept her promise to protect abortion rights (55 percent said she definitely kept her promise), while voters are more divided on questions of whether she kept her promises around cutting taxes, reducing the cost of living, increasing construction of more affordable homes, and encouraging more residents to remain living in the state.
On cutting taxes, only 10 percent responded she definitely kept her promise, 34 percent said she “somewhat” kept it and 56 percent said she broke that campaign pledge. Healey signed a tax relief law during her first year in office after the proposal was left unfinished by the Legislature during Gov. Charlie Baker’s final year in office.
Healey came out on top for voter trust on every issue polled. Asked which candidate they trust more to handle cost of living, the majority said Healey (57 percent) over Minogue (33 percent), and independent Andrea James (11 percent). The same pattern emerged for questions of healthcare, education, crime, taxes, housing, abortion and immigration.
It seems Healey has successfully connected her opponent to President Donald Trump.
Her attack ads and debate performances have focused on painting Minogue as a Republican aligned with the president, saying, “My opponent is somebody who wrote a million-dollar check to Donald Trump.” WCVB reported Minogue donated to Republicans, including Trump, in 2024 and 2025, but he did not write a $1 million check to Trump.
Meanwhile, Minogue has tried to distance himself from associations with the president. He never said his name during either gubernatorial debate, and has made an appeal to political independence central to his campaign.
In Monday’s poll, over 83 percent of respondents said they found Minogue similar to Trump on issues of abortion, immigration enforcement, healthcare, taxes and transgender rights.
Though the governor has a comfortable lead in the polls, the majority of voters still prefer the structure Massachusetts has frequently had in recent years: a Republican governor to serve as a check on the supermajority Democrat Legislature. Of the 800 respondents, 52% said it’s better for the state to have control of the governor’s office and state Legislature divided between the two parties, to 48% who said having the same party control both.
Poll respondents concerned about the rising cost of living were more likely to blame Trump than Healey. Only 10 percent blamed Healey, compared to 55 percent who blamed the president.
Ballot Questions
The ballot question subjecting the governor’s office and Legislature to the public records law remains the most popular measure: 84 percent said they would vote for it, including 55 percent who said they’d definitely vote yes, keeping up high numbers from previous polls.
Other questions favored by those surveyed include: Question 4 to allow Election Day voter registration (67 percent yes), Question 6 to create a dedicated conservation fund using tax revenue collected from sporting goods (70 percent), and Question 7 allowing single-family homes to be built in residentially zoned smaller lots (65 percent).
Question 5, to tighten the state’s tax revenue cap and make taxpayer rebates more likely was supported by 58 percent of those polled, and 20 percent opposed it with 21 percent of voters who have yet to either make up their mind or learn more about it.
Among the questions that are too close to call from Monday’s poll is Question 2, which would specify that public defenders can unionize. Over half (53 percent) of respondents said they would likely support it, but still within the margin of error, with 19 percent against it and the remaining voters polled either undecided or not understanding the ballot question.
Question 3 to create an all-party primary election system is turning out to be another nail-biter: 49 percent said they were for it, 39 percent against, while 9 percent were undecided and 3 percent did not understand the question.
For the two repeal questions on the ballot, voters look poised to keep things the way they are.
Only 31 percent of respondents said they would support Question 8 to repeal legal recreational marijuana sales, while 61 percent are opposed to overturning the young industry, which was created a decade ago via ballot question.
For referendum Question 9, 70 percent of voters say they plan to vote “yes” to uphold the state’s 2024 gun control law (including 49 percent who said definitely.) Twenty-one percent said they would probably or definitely vote “no” to repeal the law that increases the regulation of firearms, including ghost guns, machine guns, and assault-style weapons.
Other Democrats
US Sen. Ed Markey retains his comfortable lead against Republican challenger John Deaton, 54 to 28 percent, with independent candidate Shiva Ayyadurai capturing 5 and 2 percent of voters for Joseph Tache from the Party for Socialism and Liberation.
Secretary of State William Galvin is polling 59 percent, compared to his Republican challenger Anne Brensley at 26 percent; and Attorney General Andrea Campbell captured 55 percent of respondents, to her Republican opponent Michael Walsh’s 31 percent.
Treasurer Deborah Goldberg led Elizabeth Dionne (52 to 27 percent) as she seeks to capture her fourth term and Dionne knocks the treasurer for not debating her.
Democrat Auditor Diana DiZoglio has the most comfortable lead, with 60 percent of voters saying they’d cast a ballot for her and no major party opponent, but 11 percent said they would support Libertarian Al Ozonoff.
Election day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Copyright © 2026 Boston Neighborhood News, Inc. This content may not be re-published or re-used without written permission.
