By Frank Baker and Greg Vasil, Special to The Reporter
Anyone who grew up in Dorchester in the 1970s, ‘80s, or even the early ‘90s remembers what it was like under rent control. Property values were stagnant or in decline. People loved their neighborhood, but no one could honestly say it was thriving.
As neighbors decided to move or aged out, homes would be bought by other local families because there was no one else buying them. Anyone owning a three-decker could barely cover the mortgage payment from the monthly rent for the first decade or so of owning it.
Thankfully, there were some families – families like the Bakers, where 13 kids fought over socks and underwear – who always knew they would need a place to live and found a way to invest. Now, due to those long-ago investments, many families have risen out of poverty and have been able to build just a bit of generational wealth because voters abolished rent control in 1994. As a result, neighborhoods across the city were reinvigorated and thrived.
Today, activists and some politicians want to take us back four decades with a statewide rent control ballot question that would impose the most severe and strictest rent control policy in the entire country. A new study by the Tufts Center for State Analysis has found that if approved, the 2026 rent control ballot question will impact property owners and the tax base in every one of the state’s 351 cities and towns.
The data show that property values would decrease, upkeep to rental units would be minimal if any at all, and municipalities would have to decide between deep cuts to city and town services or steep increases to taxes to make up for the severe hit to property tax rates.
According to the city-by-city analysis done by Tufts and the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, rent control will cause all Boston properties to lose 9 percent of their value over the next 3 years alone and 24 percent of their value in a decade. That will mean Mayor Wu and the City Council will have to make drastic cuts to city services or boost property tax rates by more than 31 percent just to keep up. This is in the face of an already projected budget deficit for the City of Boston this fiscal year of at least $500 million.
The value of rental properties depends on its ability to generate revenue, so limiting that revenue and a landlord’s ability to charge rent in line with costs will make properties less valuable. Home values will also be hit because Bay State homes would no longer be able to be rented out at an amount that would cover necessary costs, and owners losing the ability to rent out single-family homes would lessen home values.
Losses would continue to grow over time in every municipality, with an average of 13 percent decrease to property values throughout the state. Municipalities will be poised to choose between accepting a permanent decline in residential tax collections, up to 18 percent, or raising tax rates to compensate for the shortfall.
The report also found that:
• Rent control will almost immediately shrink the residential property tax base by 6-9 percent in municipalities across the Commonwealth.
• Losses would mount over time. After a decade, property values would decrease by an average of 13 percent, costing home and property owners roughly $300 billion.
• Cities and towns will have to choose between deep cuts to services or tax hikes of at least 10 percent to compensate for the losses.
• Every city and town would face substantial property tax losses, but the hit to urban areas and college towns would be especially acute, with projected declines of 15-20 percent.
It’s no wonder that mayors from New Bedford and Revere to as far out as Holyoke have come out immediately to praise the study and condemn this wrong-headed ballot question. Gov. Healey and Speaker Mariano have already signaled their opposition, and we hope that momentum against returning to this failed idea continues.
Affordability is a very real issue for Boston property owners. For many of them, their home is their most valuable asset. Seeing its value shrink or evaporate would be a tsunami for our city and state. Now’s the time to stand up, to say no to this failed idea, and to support ideas that will help our housing crisis without hurting families.
Frank Baker is a Dorchester native and formerly represented District 3 on the Boston City Council; Greg Vasil is president & CEO of the 11,000-member Greater Boston Real Estate Board, the oldest real estate trade association in America.
