By Gage Vieno
Reporter Fellow
As Massachusetts grapples with housing shortages, an aging population and persistent workforce challenges, a new report argues that federal immigration restrictions could deepen many of the state’s most pressing economic problems.
The report, An Uncertain Future: How the Immigration Crackdown Threatens Massachusetts’ Labor Force, was released Thursday by Boston Indicators and the MassINC Policy Center and examines how immigration policies enacted during President Donald Trump’s second administration are affecting the Commonwealth’s labor force and economic outlook.
Researchers found that immigrants have become increasingly crucial to Massachusetts’ economy as the state faces one of the nation’s lowest native-born birth rates and continued domestic outmigration. According to the report, immigrants now make up roughly one-quarter of the state’s labor force and play major roles in industries ranging from higher education and life sciences to healthcare and construction.
The report estimates Massachusetts will need at least 60,000 net new immigrants annually by 2030 simply to maintain its current working-age population. Without immigration at or near that level, researchers warn that the state’s labor force could begin to shrink.
“Massachusetts faces strong demographic headwinds,” the report states, citing low birth rates, an aging population and residents leaving the state for other parts of the country.
The findings were presented Thursday morning at the Boston Foundation’s Edgerley Center for Civic Leadership in downtown Boston, where researchers discussed the potential economic consequences of declining immigration.
While much public attention has focused on the human impacts of federal immigration enforcement, the report emphasizes broader economic effects that could be felt throughout Greater Boston and the state as a whole.
Among the sectors identified as particularly vulnerable is higher education, a cornerstone of the Boston economy. Massachusetts hosts one of the largest concentrations of colleges and universities in the country and enrolls the nation’s highest share of international students relative to total enrollment.
Researchers estimate international students contributed roughly $5.7 billion to the Massachusetts economy during the 2024-25 academic year through tuition payments, housing costs and consumer spending. If international enrollment declines by 30 percent, as some education groups have projected, the state could lose more than $1.4 billion in annual economic activity.
The report also raises concerns about Boston’s “highly skilled workers in fields like life sciences, engineering, healthcare, and technology.” Researchers point to higher costs and additional restrictions associated with H-1B visas as potential barriers to recruiting workers in these fields, due to the current administration’s constraints.
Healthcare providers face a different challenge. The report highlights concerns surrounding Temporary Protected Status, particularly for Haitian workers employed throughout Massachusetts’ healthcare system. Researchers cite estimates that 40 percent of nursing facility workers in the state are foreign-born, including approximately 2,000 Haitian workers currently protected under TPS programs.
Construction leaders interviewed for the report described growing workforce instability linked to fears of immigration enforcement. Researchers warn that labor shortages could further complicate efforts to address Greater Boston’s housing crisis by slowing construction projects and increasing costs.
The report also focuses on Gateway Cities such as Lynn, Revere, Chelsea, Lawrence and Lowell, which have absorbed a significant share of recent immigrants and now serve as important sources of future workforce growth.
According to the analysis, Gateway Cities account for about 25 percent of Massachusetts’ population but contain 40 percent of its foreign-born residents and more than half of newly arrived immigrants. Researchers project that in several of those communities, children of immigrants will make up a substantial share of future labor force entrants over the next decade.
The report concludes that while Massachusetts experienced challenges during the rapid increase in immigration between 2022 and 2024, a sharp decline in immigration could prove even more disruptive. Researchers argue that immigrant workers, students, entrepreneurs and consumers have become deeply integrated into the state’s economy and that sustained reductions in immigration could have consequences far beyond immigrant communities themselves.
For Boston, where universities, hospitals, research institutions and major development projects drive much of the local economy, those effects could be particularly significant.
