While no one heading into the polls next Tuesday need guess the outcome of the mayoral election — Michelle Wu is running unopposed — two City Council races hang in the balance.
In the race for the four at-large seats, former District 3 Councilor Frank Baker is seeking a comeback. The little more than 4,000 votes separating Baker from incumbent Councilor Henry Santana in the preliminary has some pundits questioning whether an upset is in store for next week.
In the race for the District 7 City Council seat, where Said Ahmed finished first in the preliminary just 58 votes ahead of Miniard Culpepper, there is no real front runner.
Throw in the expected low turnout resulting from the lack of a contested mayoral race — little more than 1,000 voters cast ballots in early voting last weekend — and even the most seasoned political pundits would be foolish to wager on the results of these two contests.
In the final weeks of campaigns, candidates release endorsements like hole cards that they hope will tip the balance in close races. This election year provides an interesting look at how they could.
In District 7, Culpepper has secured the bulk of the endorsements — including nods from three former opponents for the seat who were eliminated in the preliminary along with backing from US Rep. Ayanna Pressley, Suffolk County District Attorney Kevin Hayden, state Sen. Lydia Edwards, and state reps. Chynah Tyler and John Moran.
Ahmed had a misfire two weeks ago with a social media post in which he shared a photograph citing support from community leaders. Three of those in the photo told reporters that they had not endorsed Ahmed, who later removed the photo. Two of the men in the picture, Robert Lewis, Jr. and Keith McDermott, did endorse him.
The extent to which the endorsements make a difference is up for debate.
“There’s clearly been a rally for Culpepper,” notes Jonathan Cohn, policy director for Progressive Mass and a member of the Ward 4 Democratic Committee, which endorsed Culpepper. “It will be interesting to see whether the drumbeat of endorsements will affect the outcome of the race.”
The two candidates emerged from a preliminary in which 5 of the 11 candidates finished within little more than 100 votes of each other, a fairly even split in the electorate. Because 70 percent of the voters cast ballots for someone else, it’s difficult to predict which way they’ll go.
“There isn’t any reason to assume voters will align with either of the two,” Cohn said.
David Halbert, executive director of Bay State Progress, says certain endorsements carry more weight than others. An endorsement from a former opponent, for instance, can demonstrate a candidate’s ability to build bridges.
The Boston Police Patrolmen’s Union, for instance, supported former at-large Councillor Annissa Essaibi George during the 2021 mayoral campaign, but supported Wu this year.
For Frank Baker, whose campaign is heavy with endorsements from Irish American elected officials— including former Mayor Marty Walsh— and labor unions, getting a nod from progressive-leaning leaders demonstrates to voters his openness to working with others. Baker counts Senator Lydia Edwards and Rep. Brandy Fluker-Reid among his boosters.
Baker’s labor union endorsements could carry more weight than his others should the unions provide campaign volunteers who can knock doors, distribute literature, and cover polling places on Election Day.
Some civic organizations do as well.
“Our endorsements come with boots on the ground,” said Armani White, chair of the group Right to the City Vote. “They come with voter engagement to ensure that the endorsed candidate is successful.”
White says the group has volunteers in eight Boston neighborhoods and backs candidates based on their commitment to issues around housing justice, voting rights, and other progressive causes.
Ward committees, to varying degrees, help candidates as well. Many cover polling places and hand out cards with their endorsements. For some voters, the sight of a trusted community member handing out palm cards could be enough to sway their vote.
As the fourth-place finisher in the preliminary, Santana is seen by some as the weakest of the at-large incumbents. He relied on support from Wu to obtain the 3,000 signatures he needed to place his name on this year’s ballot. Now Wu’s endorsement comes with financial help.
The Bold Boston super PAC that supported Wu in her contested preliminary has switched gears to support Santana, according to the newsletter MassterList. Wu’s campaign has transferred $125,000 to Bold Boston in support of Santana.
In the at-large race, RTTCV is backing incumbents Ruthzee Louijeune, Julia Mejia, Santana, and challenger Marvin Mathelier. But in the District 7 race, the group hasn’t made an endorsement.
“Both candidates have strong positions on housing issues,” White said. “We’re looking forward to working with either one of them.”
